A Quick Note on Probability…

Yesterday, I posted my virus simulation computer program that loosely demonstrates how viruses replicate and mutate. In real life, what makes a virus a virus is its particular genetic code, either DNA or RNA. This code can get altered by radiation damaging the code for example, or a mistake in the viruses error-checking mechanism (among other causes) resulting in a mutation. But the probability of a mutation is very small and practically random. My program simulates the probability of a mutation occurring using a random number generator and odds I set manually.

For example, the odds that my virus gene ‘M’ will mutate by 1 character alphabetically to ‘N’ is 1/10. The odds that my virus gene ‘M’ will mutate by 7 characters alphabetically to ‘T’ is 1/1000. I accomplished this by asking the random number generator to pick a number 1-10 and if it matched the number I picked, the gene would mutate. Same for 1/1000 odds; if it picked the same number I chose between 1 and 1000, the gene would mutate. I picked 1 every time.

Why did I choose ‘1’ every time? Well, it doesn’t really matter which number I picked. I could pick 1 or 4 or 578… the probability is the same for any particular number to be chosen. I chose 1 for simplistic purposes. But that doesn’t seem right though, huh? It just doesn’t feel like that should be the case. But it’s true! Humans are just very poor at judging probabilities.

I bring this up because in theory, the same could be said about the lottery. Have you ever played the lottery? I know I have. Which numbers did you pick? Your birthday, your child’s birthday, your childhood phone number? If the lottery is truly random, then it doesn’t really matter which number you pick; your odds are the same no matter what. What’s the difference between picking “34-08-62-19-12-55” and “08-13-19-81-20-15?”

So next time you go to buy a lottery ticket, why not choose “01-01-01-01-01-01?” Your odds are just the same. Seriously. Kind-of makes you not want to buy a lottery ticket…

By the way, your odds of getting into an accident on the way home from buying that lottery ticket far outweigh your chances of winning that lottery. How many people do you think buckle-up on the way home from the gas station? See? We’re really bad with big numbers and probability…